000 AXNT20 KNHC 292357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI 29 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM A 995 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 41N62W. THE FRONT REACHES OUR AREA NEAR 30N67W TO 18N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 28N E OF FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N63W TO 28N67W...WITH SEAS UP TO 15 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N09W TO 03N26W...THEN RESUMES WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 03N31W TO COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 02N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 04S TO 07N W OF 25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH IN THE SW BASIN NEAR 22N96W THAT PROVIDES LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS W OF 89W AND NW TO N MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NE TONIGHT AND REACH THE NE BASIN SAT MORNING WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE...LEAVING THE BASIN WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR PROVIDE STABILITY...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC WATERS BY WESTERLY FLOW SUPPORT CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 27N. NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER NW GULF WATERS TUE MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE WEST N ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED BY A 995 MB LOW NEAR 41N62W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN CUBA TO 18N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY AND HAZE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...HONDURAS AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA. SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED IN JAMAICA. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT OVER HONDURAS ADJACENT WATERS. MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW DOMINATES ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS IS MOVING OVER THE NE BASIN SUPPORTING SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES ELSEWHERE...THUS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. THE FRONT IN THE SW N ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT E-SE WHILE THE PORTION IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL STALL WHILE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE EARLY SUN. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND BEING SUPPORTED BY RIDGING ALOFT AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR. HOWEVER...A LOW LEVEL MOIST AIRMASS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA LATE SAT THROUGH SUN...THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC FROM A 995 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 41N62W. THE FRONT REACHES OUR AREA NEAR 30N67W TO 18N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND RIDGING COVERING THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR DETAILS. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL ATLC WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING WHEN IT WILL BEGIN TO STALL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR