000 AXNT20 KNHC 291149 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N75W TO 23N81W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 135 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE PART 4...OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INDICATES THE THREAT OF NORTHEAST GALE IN AGADIR...AND LOCALLY IN CANARIAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 02N02W 02N10W 01N19W 02N28W 02N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 02N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W...AND FROM 01N TO 04N BETWEEN 35W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 53W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA...AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA... INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 25N79W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N70W AND 22N77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...INCLUDING IN CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.55 IN BERMUDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 88W WESTWARD. A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VFR/NO CEILINGS EVERYWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIFR IN BAY CITY. IFR IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. LIFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN PATTERSON. FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA...TO BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...THE SKIES AT THE MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE HAVE BEEN VARYING FROM VFR/NO CEILINGS TO MVFR...OFF AND ON...DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...TO CUBA NEAR 23N82W...TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 20N82W...EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CUBA TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA...INCLUDING IN CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THAT SAME AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE ELSE...AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...SOUTHEASTERLY TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM JAMAICA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PRESENT IN THIS SAME AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM 12N NORTHWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N43W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N53W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE AT BARAHONA. LIGHT RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...1000 FEET...AND FOG...ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS/NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL END UP ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL TOUCH HISPANIOLA. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME VARIABLE...AND THEN IT WILL BECOME NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE END OF DAY ONE EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THEN IT WILL SHOOT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE REST OF DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N21W TO 27N30W 26N38W 20N42W 11N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N53W...TO THE MONA PASSAGE. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND TO WESTERN CUBA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT