000 AXNT20 KNHC 290551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 29 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOON IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO 24N80W. N OF 27N WITHIN 120 NM SE OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 11 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. THE PART 4...OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INDICATES A NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN THE AREAS... METEOR...CANARIAS...TARFAYA...AND LOCALLY GALE IN AGADIR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... NO MONSOON TROUGH IS PRESENT. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 02N16W 01N21W 02N28W 01N36W 01N43W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...INTO BRAZIL NEAR 02S51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 04N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 24W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THAT IS NEAR 32N76W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO MEXICO NEAR 19N91W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W 22N77W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.55 IN BERMUDA. IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN CENTRAL AMERICA... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VFR/NO CEILINGS EVERYWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... FROM TEXAS TO ALABAMA...AND IN FLORIDA FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...MVFR IN PERRY. IFR IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR/IFR IN THE TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN PUNTA GORDA AND IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA... TO THE NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA...INCLUDING IN CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVER THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THAT SAME AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE ELSE...AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PRESENT IN THIS SAME AREA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN 200 NM OR SO TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...MAINLY FROM 12N NORTHWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 29/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N58W...TO HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A 6000 FOOT CEILING...VFR...AT 29/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT BARAHONA AT 29/0000 UTC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT AND WILL MOVE TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS/NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA TO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT WEST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. EXPECT MORE WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL END UP ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WILL TOUCH HISPANIOLA. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME VARIABLE...AND THEN IT WILL BECOME NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST AS AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER DEVELOPS NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE END OF DAY ONE EVENTUALLY WILL BECOME EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF DAY TWO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...AND THEN IT WILL SHOOT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING THE REST OF DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N38W 16N43W 11N45W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO27N58W...TO HISPANIOLA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE EAST OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT