000 AXNT20 KNHC 290002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W SW TO A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE FAR EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N82W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LATEST SCAT PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE S OF 21N WHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEAS OF 12 T0 16 FT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS IN THE ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THIS EARLY THIS EVENING. THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVER SW N ATLC WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...N OF 27N WITHIN 120 NM SE OF FRONT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N13W TO 03N36W TO 01N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND FROM 02N TO 04S W OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W SW TO A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE FAR EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR27N82W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. OVER THE WESTERN GULF...RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THUS SUPPORTING GALE-FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. WARM MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE SE BASIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT...INCLUDING THE SW GULF. FRESH TO STRONG W TO NW WINDS DOMINATE BEHIND THE FRONT...EXCEPT THE GALE- FORCE AREA DESCRIBED ABOVE. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE BASIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN RELAXES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS EXTENDS SW OVER ATLC WATERS TO THE NE CARIBBEAN AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BASIN TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NORTHERN HONDURAS AND ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS W OF 83W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FRIDAY INCREASING THE SHOWERS ACTIVITY IN THE REGION. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND...EXCEPT FOR HAZY CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED OVER THE NW AND SOUTH-CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W SW TO 29N81W TO A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE FAR EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N82W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW IN THE ATLC TO THE SE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MIAMI...ACROSS THE STRAITS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT SUPPORT THE FRONT GENERATES A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT THAT ENHANCES NUMEROUS SHOWERS N OF 27N W OF 70W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1041 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING FL AND THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. HEAVY SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR