000 AXNT20 KNHC 281804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 26N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES THROUGH 23N90W TO 17N91W. COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR COATZACOALOS MEXICO CONFIRM THAT GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE S OF 21N W OF 94W WHERE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEAS OF 10 T0 17 FT ARE EXPECTED. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N77W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY WITH SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND REACHING GALE FORCE N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W BEGINNING FRI MORNING AND CONTINUING UNTIL FRI EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N12W TO 04N30W TO 03N43W TO 01N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND 28W...AND S OF 02N W OF 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 26N87W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES THROUGH 23N90W TO 17N91W. SE OF THE FRONT...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N85W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 22N88W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO 21N86W TO THE NW CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE COLD FRONT...CONCENTRATED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGHS. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE FL LAND AREAS FROM STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TROUGH. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE SE OF THE NORTHERNMOST TROUGH. MODERATE NW WINDS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND NORTHERNMOST TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF NW OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THE GALE FORCE WINDS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE LOW WILL MOVE NE OVER THE W ATLC. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SE AND EXIT THE GULF TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS NW OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS E OF 80W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO 22N85W TO 16N87W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MODERATE SE WINDS ARE BETWEEN 80W AND THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. MAINLY MODERATE SW WINDS ARE W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OF TRADE WIND FLOW N OF A LINE FROM TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO JAMAICA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE SE ...ENTERING THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WHILE MERGING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TROUGH AND WITH THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... SCATTERED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM A 1009 LOW NEAR 33N74W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N79W TO S FLORIDA NEAR THE MIAMI AREA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N73W TO 26N77W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER S FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1042 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING FL AND THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND E OF THE COLD FRONT AND NEAR THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO