000 AXNT20 KNHC 281133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR CEDAR KEY 26N86W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES THROUGH 24N90W TO 19N91W. A 0353 UTC ASCAT PASS AND OBSERVATIONS AT BUOY 42055 SUGGEST GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOW CONFINED TO AN AREA S OF 21N AND W OF 95W...WITH SEAS UP TO 17 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N76W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD LATER TODAY WITH SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND REACHING GALE FORCE N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRI. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 07N11W TO 02N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 14W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR CEDAR KEY 26N86W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES THROUGH 24N90W TO 19N91W. SE OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR 25N86W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SINCE 0600 UTC...A SQUALL LINE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SE GULF AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SW FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 45-60 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W CONFIRMED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGERY. GOES-R IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS INDICATED LOW VISIBILITIES OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING THE ONGOING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. THE GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SPRAWLING 1041 HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE BASIN EAST OF 78W WITH STRONG WINDS...25 TO 30 KT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-75W. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 75W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 31N77W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 75W WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D DEPICTING THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND MELBOURNE. A BROAD 1041 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 38N29W AND DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TO THE S OF THIS FEATURE...A SHEAR LINE EXTENDED FROM 31N25W TO 28N43W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY WITH SW WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND REACHING GALE FORCE N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRI. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB