000 AXNT20 KNHC 280541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU 28 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 26N89W TO 24N93W TO 18N92W. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS S OF 23N AND W OF 95W...WITH SEAS UP TO 17 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO 03N25W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 15W-18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE THE FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR CEDAR KEY TO 26N89W TO24N93W TO 18N92W. SE OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM EXTREME S FLORIDA TO 24N86W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N89W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED WITHIN 45-60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BETWEEN 84W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W CONFIRMED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D IMAGERY. GOES-R IFR/LIFR PROBABILITY PRODUCTS INDICATED LOW VISIBILITIES OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THESE WERE CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING THE ONGOING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. THE GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NEXT 18 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SPRAWLING 1042 HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W-78W WHERE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAIL. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN MAINLY E OF 75W AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N78W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 30N77W THROUGH GRAND BAHAMA TO JUST S OF MIAMI FLORIDA. 29N80W TO 32N78W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF THESE FEATURES MAINLY N OF 27N AND W OF 72W. A BROAD 1042 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 38N34W AND DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TO THE S OF THIS FEATURE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM 31N26W TO 29N35W THEN AS A SHEAR LINE TO 28N45W. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR LINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE WAKE OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB