000 AXNT20 KNHC 271751 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED JAN 27 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY THROUGH 26.5N90W TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FROM 22N-25N W OF 96W WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO 03N20W TO THE EQUATOR AT 28W AND TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR SOUTHWARD TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 41W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY THROUGH 26.5N90W TO NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. A 1013 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR 27N84W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR 22N89W. THE LOW HAS SINCE DISSIPATED AND THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NOW DEPICTED AS A SQUALL LINE AS OF 15 UTC. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE REACHED GALE FORCE FROM 22N-25N GENERALLY W OF 96W. BUOYS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT AND 90W ARE REPORTING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH SEAS TO 10 FT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60-75 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO 24N89W. WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS AN ACTIVE SQUALL LINE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA FROM PALM BEACH TO MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SPREADING ASHORE NORTH OF NAPLES TO THE TAMPA BAY AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE RIO GRANDE AND NW MEXICO WITH BROAD SOMEWHAT DIFLUENT SW FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SW FLOW WAS JUST S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MOVING ENE AT 25 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AS INDICATED BY A 1500 UTC ASCAT PASS. WINDS IN THE AREA WERE GENERALLY 25-30 KT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS WERE NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND WESTERN CUBA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 05N92W WITH BROAD RIDGE DOMINATING THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANIED THE RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A VERY EXPANSIVE 1042 MB HIGH IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N39W. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N29W TO 27N35W...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND EXTENDS THROUGH 28N40W TO 28N50W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED OVER THE FAR NW ATLANTIC N OF 26N W OF 72W. WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS AN ACTIVE SQUALL LINE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA FROM PALM BEACH TO MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDING 120-180 NM N OF THE SQUALL LINE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...EXTENSION OF CARIBBEAN RIDGE COVERED THE SW N ATLANTIC S OF 30N W OF 60W WITH DIFLUENT FLOW NOTED W OF 75W EXTENDING OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF... MAINTAINING THE SQUALL LINE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN THE AREA. DOWNSTREAM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W- 60W. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W TO S FLORIDA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB