000 AXNT20 KNHC 271103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 27 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND A 1008 MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA HAS PRODUCED A GALE OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13.5N BETWEEN 73W-77W WITH SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. GALE WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THIS EVENING ON 27/1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FROM 22N-25N W OF 96W WITH SEAS TO 13 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ON 28/1800 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO 03N20W TO 02N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 14W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO S OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 300 NM NW OF FRONT. A GALE IS OVER THE W GULF NW OF THE FRONT. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE... RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA E OF 84W. A SQUALL LINE IS PRESENTLY TRAVERSING SOUTH FLORIDA MOVING QUICKLY EAST. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING CONVECTION. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A VERY LARGE 1038 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 37N42W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N34W TO 27N47W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 25N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W- 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 18N20W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO ADVECT INTO THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N74W TO S FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE OTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM 31N25W TO 27N50W WITH SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA