000 AXNT20 KNHC 262343 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE DECREASING BELOW GALE FORCE AT THIS TIME...WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO GALE FORCE BY 0600 UTC WED MORNING FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE MOVE SE ACROSS THE W GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN MAINLY W OF 95W...WITH SEAS UP TO 16 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N19W TO 00N35W TO 01S45W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A 1017 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 31N90W WITH COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER THE NW GULF FROM 30N92W TO 26N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N92W TO 25N94W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. TO THE S...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N97W TO 19N95W. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF THE FRONT WHERE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE WITH CONVECTION. THE TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE FRONT AND THE LOW OVER THE E GULF WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 09N75W WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 80W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1035 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 38N53W DOMINATES THE W- CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 22N69W TO 28N47W THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 32N38W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NE OF PUERTO RICO FROM 20N63W TO 22N60W. SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED JUST W OF PORTUGAL DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N FL/GA COAST WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT AFFECTING THE W ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA