000
AXNT20 KNHC 261746
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                    

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE W ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN HAS
BEEN PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE SW
CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE DECREASING SLIGHTLY
BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL PULSE BACK TO GALE
FORCE BY 0600 UTC WED MORNING FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND
77W. SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT ARE EXPECTED. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE SE TO NEAR
30N87W TO 19N96W BY 0600 UTC WED. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP FROM 22N TO 25N W OF 96W OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY 0600 UTC WED. SEAS TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W AFRICA COAST NEAR 09N13W
TO 07N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N20W TO 02N30W TO 01N44W. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS BEING OBSERVED IN THIS AREA AT THIS
TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
                  
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER
THE NW GULF FROM 30N93W TO 27N94W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE
NW OF THE COLD FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. SHORTWAVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WILL MOVE TO THE SE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TONIGHT TOWARD
THE W GULF. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD FRONT AND HELP TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. AS THIS OCCURS...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO ACCELERATE TO THE SE. IN ADDITION...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW OF THE FRONT AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OVER THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN TO THE SE OF THE FRONT. 
                        
CARIBBEAN SEA...      
 
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THIS HIGH AND A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 09N76W SUPPORTS GALE FORCE
WINDS N OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ARE ELSEWHERE E OF 80 W OVER THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE W OF 80W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND
86W...AND OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL FLUCTUATE JUST BELOW AND NEAR GALE FORCE
N OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. 
  
...HISPANIOLA...                                          

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE ISLAND
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN TRADE WIND FLOW. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                 

A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N62W DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC WITH
MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N43W TO
25N56W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N69W.
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 55W AND 65W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N59W TO 18N63W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST W OF PORTUGAL DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE N FL/GA COAST WITH
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE FL
E COAST.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO