000 AXNT20 KNHC 261141 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND RACE E REACHING A POSITION FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. STRONG N WINDS WILL DEVELOP W OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW GULF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREAD S ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SW GULF WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 25-30 KT NEAR GALE FORCE MOST AREAS WITH AN EMBEDDED BAND OF MINIMAL GALE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL WATERS TONIGHT. THESE MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SE REACHING ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 21N W OF 94W ON WED AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 15 FT NEAR 22N96W. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON WED EVENING. A WEAK...PERHAPS ABOUT 1011 MB...LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 26N85W ON WED NIGHT AND RACE NE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THU DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THU AFTERNOON. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...ROUGHLY FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W INTO THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING. MINIMAL GALE 25-35 KT CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING. ASSOCIATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 11 FT THIS MORNING AND TO 13 FT TONIGHT. THESE MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE SURROUNDED BY STRONG NE-E TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W AND 78W WHICH ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND E AND W TODAY AND COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN E OF 80W TONIGHT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 06N FROM 10E TO 01W... THEN TURNS NW JUST INLAND ACROSS SW AFRICA TO 08N13W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ. THE ITCZ CONTINUES SW TO THE EQUATOR AT 30W...THEN TURNS W ALONG THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 50W. LOCALLY BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 03N05W TO 05N22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER WINDS ADVECTING ABUNDANT UPPER MOISTURE E ACROSS THE GULF WITH UPPER DIFFLUENCE EVIDENT E OF 86W. AT THE LOW LEVELS AN E TO W RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IS RETRACTING E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS ALREADY SLIPPED OFF THE NW COAST FROM SW LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS. AN AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF THE NE TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ACCOMPANIED BY DRY UPPER AIR...EXCEPT FOR DENSE CIRRIFORM CLOUDS CURRENTLY STREAMING E ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ALSO NOTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH PATCHES OF LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS...WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT AND BRIEF SHOWERS...RACING W ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W THEN TURNING NW...IN RESPONSE TO THE ATLANTIC RIDGE...ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AS MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. ...HISPANIOLA... THE SOUTHERN END OF A DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS. EXPECT BRIEF AND LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TONIGHT AS REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH DRIFT N OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 65W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED AT 23N43W WITH ITS UPPER ANTICYCLONIC ENVELOPE DOMINATING THE AREA BETWEEN 20W AND 50W. AT THE LOW LEVELS A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA AT 34N65W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA. A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW INTO THE AREA AT 32N48W TO NEAR 22N60W WHERE IS BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY TO HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...DETECTED BY LIGHTNING DATA...ARE OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N60W TO 22N64W. UPPER DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION IS ADVECTED NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NE SUBTROPICAL ATLC...WITH SOME OF THE MOISTURE SPILLING S ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AND BACK ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA TO THE N OF 20N BETWEEN 22W AND 42W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE E AND WEAKEN TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NELSON