000 AXNT20 KNHC 260604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS BEING GENERATED BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... AND THE LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES THAT ARE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTH AMERICA. GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST-TO-EAST AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE GULF OF MEXICO 36-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N87W TO 26N93W TO 22N95W TO 18N95W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET FROM 21N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 95W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 10N15W TO 05N20W TO 02N30W 01N40W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N TO 03N BETWEEN 05W AND 08W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND LOUISIANA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N71W...ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA... INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W. A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN CENTRAL TEXAS NOW IS FORECAST TO REACH THE TEXAS GULF COAST IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KGVX...KHHV...KVAF...AND KSPR. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR AT PORT ISABEL IN THE LOWER VALLEY. MVFR IN THE MIDDLE GULF COAST PLAINS FROM VICTORIA/PALACIOS/BAY CITY TO BROOKSVILLE. MVFR/IFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. IFR AND RAIN AT ELLINGTON FIELD IN HOUSTON. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT. RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. LOUISIANA...RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED OFF AND ON DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...MVFR AT THE MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PENSACOLA. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND LOUISIANA. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST FROM NICARAGUA NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CENTRAL AMERICA... FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 70W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEAST FROM COSTA RICA SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... VFR/NO CEILINGS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED/BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED. THE SOUTHERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT IS REACHING THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TOUCHING THE ISLAND. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. EXPECT UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL AFFECT HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE TROUGH AT 500 MB WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE TO THE EAST AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT...THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 27N64W TO 23N61W AS COLD...AND FROM 23N61W TO 21N66W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W AS STATIONARY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N56W TO 20N67W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 26/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN GUADELOUPE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT