000
AXNT20 KNHC 252324
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                    

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE W ATLANTIC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
AND SOUTH AMERICA WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN BY ON 26/0600 UTC FROM 10.5N-12.5N BETWEEN 74W-76W
WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 9-12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND RETURNING BY 27/0600
UTC. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE
GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 22N-26N AND W OF 95W. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                            

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 02N23W TO
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
                                          
A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER E NORTH CAROLINA NEAR
36N76W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW REACHING THE GULF WATERS. WITH
THIS...A MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE
BASIN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE NW GULF WITH CONVECTION. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW
GULF BY WEDNESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...      
 
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE BASIN. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE
TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 80W AND E
OF 70W. A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT THE N-CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED LIGHT
CONVECTION AFFECTING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA...AND THE
MONA PASSAGE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A GALE WARNING
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. 
  
...HISPANIOLA...                                          

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE ISLAND DUE TO A DISSIPATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM. EXPECT FOR SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                 

A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC...CENTERED
NEAR 36N76W. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN. IT WAS ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 20N70W TO 20N66W...THEN BECOMES A COLD FRONT FROM
THAT POINT TO 27N57W TO 32N49W. SCATTERED CONVECTION PREVAILS
WITHIN 100 NM OF E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1034 HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 36N18W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA