000
AXNT20 KNHC 251739
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                    

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND A LOW
OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN ON 26/0600 UTC FROM 10.5N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W
WITH NE WINDS 25 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. GALE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR SIX HOURS UNTIL 26/1200 UTC. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                            

THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 05N20W TO
02N30W TO 01N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N48W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 16W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
                                          
A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER E NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 36N76W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
S FROM THE HIGH TO W CUBA NEAR 23N81W. WINDS ARE SOUTHERLY W OF
THE RIDGE AXIS RANGING BETWEEN 10-20 KT WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. BROKEN MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST
OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...90 KT ZONAL FLOW IS NOTED
WITH A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM 20N-27N
W OF 85W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TEXAS COLD FRONT TO REACH
THE TEXAS COAST WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF TO HAVE SE RETURN FLOW. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...      
                                        
A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA
NEAR 18N71W TO 15N79W TO PANAMA NEAR 09N81W. 10-20 NE WINDS ARE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NW OF FRONT. PATCHES OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER
N COLOMBIA NEAR 08N74W. 15-20 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GOING AROUND THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 75W...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.
VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AND TRADEWIND FLOW
TO RESUME. A BRIEF GALE IS FORECAST ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. SEE ABOVE. 
  
...HISPANIOLA...                                          

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA DUE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                 

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N55W TO 23N64W
TO HISPANIOLA AT 18N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
FROM 31N18W TO 23N30W TO 22N40W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 30W SUPPORTING THE OTHER FRONT. EXPECT
THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SHOWERS.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA