000 AXNT20 KNHC 251108 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 984 MB STORM LOW CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 46N40W SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO 30N57W TO NE HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N69W THEN STALLS FROM SOUTHERN HAITI TO CENTRAL PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS FROM 11 TO 17 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 12 UTC TODAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A BROAD RIDGE CURRENTLY ANCHORED IN THE SE CONUS WILL MOVE E INTO ATLC WATERS TODAY WHILE IT INTENSIFIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE...THUS YIELDING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W EARLY TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN PULSING AGAIN EARLY WED MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 05N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 02N33W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB CENTER OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N78W. RETURN FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN...GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WIND E OF 90W AND FRESH TO STRONG SE WIND W OF 90W AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TUE MORNING. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A FORMER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE FAR EAST OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...THUS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THAT REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN...ON TUE MORNING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STORM LOW CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR E SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19N69W SW TO 18N71W WHERE IT STALLS TO CENTRAL PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. LIFTING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING TO CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. LATEST SCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO 80W...INCLUDING CUBA COASTAL WATERS AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS STARTED AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA INTENSIFIES WHILE MOVES E. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE...THUS YIELDING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74WAND 76W TUE MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL STALL OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO SW TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS WHERE IT WILL START DISSIPATING. ...HISPANIOLA... A STORM LOW CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE FAR E SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19N69W SW TO 18N71W WHERE IT STALLS TO CENTRAL PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. LIFTING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND STALLS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N56W...ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 19N69W SW TO 18N71W WHERE IT STALLS TO CENTRAL PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. PLEASE REFER SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 70W WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AHEAD OF IT BEING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 33N29W. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE...A STATIONARY FRONT IS BEING ANALYZED FROM 30N18W TO 22N30W TO 22N41W. BY LATE TODAY THE FRONT WILL STALL S OF 24N...LIFTING N FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS