000 AXNT20 KNHC 250604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON JAN 25 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 989 MB STORM LOW CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 45N46W SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW TO 30N58W TO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W THEN STALLS FROM SOUTHERN HAITI TO NORTHERN PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N WITHIN 210 NM E OF FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS FROM 10 TO 17 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A BROAD RIDGE CURRENTLY ANCHORED IN THE SE CONUS WILL MOVE E INTO ATLC WATERS TODAY WHILE IT INTENSIFIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE...THUS YIELDING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W TUE MORNING. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD FROM 9 TO 12 FT. GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 11N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S44W. NO CONVECTION IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS THE BASIN BEING ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB CENTER OVER NE WATERS NEAR 28N85W. LATEST SCAT DATA SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E WINDS E OF 90W WHILE THE PASS OVER THE WESTERN BASIN DEPICTS MAINLY SE TO S MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS...WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER VERACRUZ COASTAL WATERS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF A FORMER COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE SW N ATLC WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS TUE MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THAT REGION. THEN...ON TUE MORNING FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STORM LOW CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 19N70W SW TO SOUTHERN HAITI WHERE IT STALLS TO PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. LIFTING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. COMBINED SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING. LATEST SCAT DATA SHOW FRESH TO STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN WILL STALL OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO SW TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS WHERE IT WILL START DISSIPATING. A BROAD RIDGE CURRENTLY ANCHORED IN THE SE CONUS WILL MOVE E INTO ATLC WATERS TODAY WHILE IT INTENSIFIES. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA WILL INCREASE...THUS YIELDING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W TUE MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. ...HISPANIOLA... A STORM LOW CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC THAT EXTENDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 19N70W SW TO SOUTHERN HAITI WHERE IT STALLS TO PANAMA ADJACENT WATERS. LIFTING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT ENTERS WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND STALLS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE SW TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N57W SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 18N73W WHERE ITS STALLS TO THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 20N. SURFACE HIGH PRES STARTS TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 75W WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES AHEAD OF IT BEING ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 31N34W. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE...A STATIONARY FRONT IS BEING ANALYZED FROM 30N20W TO 22N39W. BY LATE TODAY THE FRONT WILL STALL S OF 24N...LIFTING N FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT. RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR