000
AXNT20 KNHC 231744
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                    

A 987 MB STORM LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA NEAR
37N75W SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W
THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO E CUBA NEAR 22N77W. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE OCCURRING ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT NAMELY N OF 25N
WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT...AND N OF 26N WITHIN 240 NM W OF
FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING GALE TO NEAR GALE WINDS. W TO NW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT ARE N OF 25N E OF 86W. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 04N08W TO
03N14W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 01N30W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02S44W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 15W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
                                          
A GALE IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS
OVER THE WESTERN GULF WHERE WINDS ARE ONLY 15 KT ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE OVER GULF
WATERS S OF 26N AND E OF 93W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH VERY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A 130 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NE GULF WITH
NW FLOW. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND
FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
E OF 90W AND SOUTHERLY WINDS W OF 90W. ALL WINDS WILL BE 20 KT
OR LESS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...      
                                        
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA NEAR 22N77W TO THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF
FRONT. 20 KT NW WINDS ARE NW OF FRONT. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 09N75W. 10-25 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA GOING AROUND THE LOW CENTER WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND E HISPANIOLA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A 90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH
WESTERLY FLOW. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER BARBADOS. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA WITH SHOWERS.
  
...HISPANIOLA...                                          

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER E HISPANIOLA E OF 71W. ELSEWHERE...
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE W OF 73W.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE ISLAND
ALONG 71W WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                 

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE AREA OF
GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N31W TO 25N40W TO 22N53W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF
70W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N E OF 45W SUPPORTING THE OTHER COLD
FRONT. EXPECT BOTH FRONTS TO MOVE QUICKLY E OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA