000 AXNT20 KNHC 230604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN A COLD FRONT AND FLORIDA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. A GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS ALONG 25N81W 23N82W. EXPECT GALE- FORCE WEST-TO-NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 15 FEET FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT IS ALONG 31N79W 27N80W. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N71W TO 27N75W TO 22N77W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WEST- TO-NORTHWEST AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 17 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. ANOTHER AREA OF DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH GALE- FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECASTS...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...AND MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC... FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...IRVING. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN LIBERIA NEAR 05N08W TO 03N11W AND 02N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 02N14W TO 03N28W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 08W AND 21W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 13N17W TO 05N30W TO 04N51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND CUBA... INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO BELIZE. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 17N NORTHWARD. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 23N75W IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BEYOND 32N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N75W 19N80W 16N87W...FROM THE BAHAMAS TO HONDURAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR CONDITIONS...KSPR. MVFR CONDITIONS...KVQT...KGRY...KEIR...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA... KVKY...KMIS...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR AT PORT FOURCHON AND BOOTHVILLE...AND AT THE NEW ORLEANS DOWNTOWN AIRPORT. FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA TO PERRY FLORIDA...MVFR CONDITIONS. THE REST OF FLORIDA...RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTH OF 16N84W 25N64W 18N40W. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 06N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 63W...FROM THE SOUTHEAST IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 22N BETWEEN 64W AND 74W...FROM THE SOUTHWEST MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND CYCLONIC COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO CUBA BETWEEN 78W AND 85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A VFR CEILING AT 23/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN BARAHONA AT 23/0000 UTC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE TWO-DAY FORECAST PERIOD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA AND TO THE WEST OF COLOMBIA. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM DAY ONE TO DAY TWO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST DURING DAY TWO. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN IT MOVES TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N39W TO 25N46W 23N55W AND 22N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 70W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 29N55W TO 27N63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 26N45W 26N60W 28N69W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SENEGAL TO 08N25W 07N40W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N17W 07N27W 06N44W 07N55W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 27N23W 23N36W 20N49W TO 18N60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 31N39W-TO- 25N46W 23N55W 22N66W SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT