000 AXNT20 KNHC 222345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SE US SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N91W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING W OF A LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N84W TO 20N94W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE FRONT DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLANTIC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS N OF 28N AND W OF 77W AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 03N14W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE SE US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N91W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED OVER THE SE GULF FROM 28N82W TO 23N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS E OF 85W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW AND NE GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS ABOUT GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E INTO THE W CARIBBEAN/W ATLANTIC. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO IS FAST APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN. A PRE-FRONTAL EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 23N84W TO 18N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONT AND TROUGH AFFECTION THE CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 19N AND W OF 81W. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ENHANCES ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAILS N OF COLOMBIA MAINLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-77W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT...SUBSIDING TO MAINLY FRESH BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...INDUCING A RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING IN HABANA ON SATURDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADE WINDS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH THE SW FETCH OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN HAITI THROUGH SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF 70W. TO THE E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 27N63W TO 32N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS SE OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 21N67W TO 31N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS E OF THIS BOUNDARY N OF 26N BETWEEN 30W-42W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATED THE E ATLANTIC ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SPAIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE FL COAST WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AS THE FRONT MOVES E. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA