000 AXNT20 KNHC 221805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SE US SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM 30N84W TO 22N88W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. FREQUENT NW TO N WIND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N W OF 91W AND N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. MORE PERSISTENT GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS ARE S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY EAST AND ACROSS FL THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 77W. LATE THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH GALE FORCE W TO NW WINDS N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT. THE GALE FORCE WINDS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG WITH THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 03N15W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 02N25W TO 01N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH AXIS E OF 30N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE STORM SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SE US SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AS OF 1500 UTC EXTENDED FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE...FL TO 25N85W TO 19N92W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM N FL TO JUST OFFSHORE THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO NEAR 26N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND E OF THE SQUALL LINE. FRESH SE WINDS ARE E OF THE SQUALL LINE. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS ARE W OF THE FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WITH GRADUALLY SUBSIDING WINDS AND SEAS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FAST APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN 50 NM OF A LINE FROM 18N86W TO 23N84W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS RE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN ASIDE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH SW WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE SE WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...SUBSIDING TO MAINLY FRESH BY SATURDAY EVENING. ...HISPANIOLA... THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLC EXTENDS TO THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER ISLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO HAITI LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON SUNDAY. WITH THE SW FETCH OF MOISTURE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN HAITI THROUGH SATURDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF 75W N OF 23N. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND THEN SHIFT TO THE W TO NW WHILE CONTINUING AT GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER A PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N35W TO 26N45W TO 23N55W...TRANSITIONING TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE FL COAST...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND CONVECTION SPREADING EAST WITH PORTIONS OF THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO