000 AXNT20 KNHC 221133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF...AND FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N89W 21N98W. NORTHWESTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET ARE PRESENT TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 6-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO CONSISTS OF NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 94W...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 15-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ STARTS AT THE COAST OF SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N11W AND IT CONTINUES TO 06N17W AND 03N24W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 08W AND 21W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 13N17W TO 05N30W TO 04N51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 22N98W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST AND TO 23N100W INLAND. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM MEXICO NEAR 23N100W NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA. A SQUALL LINE IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N85W 28N86W 25N88W...FROM THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COLD FRONT IS PART OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS BEING FORECAST TO BRING POSSIBLE RECORD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO THE U.S.A. MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL SECTIONS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS. OTHER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 87W EASTWARD...TO FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT...AND GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N73W...TO NORTHWESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N83W...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN ABOUT 6 HOURS...AND STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN ABOUT 18 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR CONDITIONS...KSPR AND KMIS. MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KGVX...KXIH...KVBS...KEMK...KGUL... KHQI....KEIR...KMDJ...KIKT...KVOA...AND KVKY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR AT ELLINGTON FIELD IN HOUSTON...AT CONROE WITH LIGHT RAIN TO THE NORTH OF HOUSTON...AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR ALONG THE COAST/IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. MISSISSIPPI...IFR IN BILOXI. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER IN STENNIS/BAY ST. LOUIS. MVFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. ALABAMA... MVFR CONDITIONS. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN IN MILTON. MVFR IN CRESTVIEW. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ELSEWHERE FROM THE LINE DESTIN-TO-CRESTVIEW WESTWARD. MVFR FROM PANAMA CITY TO MARIANNA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER IN APALACHICOLA AND TALLAHASSEE. LIGHT RAIN IN BROOKSVILLE. MVFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE ST. PETERSBURG/ CLEARWATER METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR IN NAPLES. LIGHT RAIN IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 40W WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. 600 MB TO 800 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 73W EASTWARD...AND WEAKENING/DISAPPEARING IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CEILING AT 22/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN BARAHONA AT 22/0000 UTC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA CANA. FOG AND FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ONE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN COLOMBIA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA...AND A SECOND ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TWO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS EVENTUALLY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE CENTER...AND IT WILL END UP ON TOP OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE THAT WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST...AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW FOR THE START OF DAY ONE...BECOMING SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH-TO- SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF DAY TWO AS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 40W WESTWARD. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 28N40W 26N50W 23N60W...AND TO 20N70W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W 25N40W 24N50W 21N60W ...TO THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 32N70W TO 31N77W...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA...AND INLAND. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE 32N32W-TO-HISPANIOLA FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 60W WESTWARD. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 15N18W TO 06N36W AND 02N46W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N18W 09N30W 08N40W 07N55W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N14W...THROUGH 32N16W TO 28N22W 24N33W...TO 20N50W AND 20N65W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N32W-TO-HISPANIOLA STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT