000 AXNT20 KNHC 220540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IN TWO AREAS...AND FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE 6-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 29N89W TO 21N98W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 90W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 6-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO ALSO CONSISTS OF NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE WEST OF 95W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 31N79W TO 28N81W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE SOUTHEAST-TO- SOUTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 11 FEET TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 08N13W TO 07N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N18W TO 03N30W 02N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 44W...TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 02N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 06W AND 11W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 12N17W TO 05N30W TO 05N51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N79W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR CONDITIONS...KDLP. MVFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KVBS...KEMK...KGUL...KVQT...KGHB... KGRY...KEIR...AND KSPR. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES INCLUDING IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT RAIN IN NEW IBERIA...GALLIANO...AND IN THE BOOTHVILLE METROPOLITAN AREA WITH THUNDER. LIGHT RAIN AND VFR/NO CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM SLIDELL TO THE AREAS THAT ARE AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALABAMA...RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER IN THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN AREA. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN FROM PENSACOLA TO MILTON AND IN CRESTVIEW. MVFR IN MARY ESTHER AND VALPARAISO. MVFR IN MARATHON KEY. VFR IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 40W WESTWARD. 600 MB TO 800 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 71W EASTWARD...AND FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW...THAT IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA... IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND VFR CEILING AT 22/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN BARAHONA AT 22/0000 UTC. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ONE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN COLOMBIA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA...AND A SECOND ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TWO ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS EVENTUALLY WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE CENTER...AND IT WILL END UP ON TOP OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE THAT WILL BE LOCATED TO THE EAST...AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW FOR THE START OF DAY ONE...BECOMING SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH BY THE END OF DAY ONE. THE WIND FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH-TO- SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF DAY TWO AS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 40W WESTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 27N43W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 27N43W TO 26N53W...TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THAT IS NEAR 20N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W 25N40W 24N50W...TO THE EASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 32N70W TO 31N77W...BEYOND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA...AND INLAND. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE 32N32W-TO-HISPANIOLA FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 60W WESTWARD. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 22/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 16N18W TO 06N32W AND 02N46W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N18W 09N30W 09N41W 07N56W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N15W...TO 28N24W 23N42W...TO 19N62W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N32W-TO-HISPANIOLA FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT