000
AXNT20 KNHC 212345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 
                                        
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
LATER TODAY GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF
BEGINNING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING N OF 26N BETWEEN 87W-92W. SEAS OF
12-14 FT ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                            

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
08N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 04N26W TO
00N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE BOUNDARIES MAINLY E OF 20W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
                                          
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE FRONT IS ALREADY
MOVING ACROSS THE NW GULF WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N
OF 27N AND W OF 92W. TO THE E...ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 29N BETWEEN 86W-91W. A SURFACE
RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N78W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A MODERATE TO FRESH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING SE OVER THE GULF WITH CONVECTION. GALE
FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS FRONT...PLEASE REFER TO THE
SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...      
                                        
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE JET STREAM FLOW COVERS THE NW
CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED CONVECTION
PREVAILS N OF 18N AND W OF 80W. TO THE E...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND A NEARBY STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC SUPPORTS SHOWERS
OVER HISPANIOLA. AND AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO COVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN 63W-69W.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH MORE CONVECTION. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                          

THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS TO
THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SUPPORTING SHOWERS OVER
MUCH OF THE ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A GRADUAL DRYING TREND INTO THE DAY
FRIDAY. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                 

A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
29N78W. TO THE E...A FRONTAL SYSTEM COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N70W TO 27N43W
THEN AS A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 32N34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 26N BETWEEN 33W-53W. ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR E ATLANTIC...ANCHORED BY A
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N15W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
E...BRINGING CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME STATIONARY.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA