000 AXNT20 KNHC 211203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 18-HOUR FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N93.5W TO 27N94W TO 24N98W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS...FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 06N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N19W TO 04N23W AND 01N26W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 10N BETWEEN 08W AND 20W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM AWAY FROM LAND...BETWEEN BRAZIL AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...FROM 20N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO 20N97W ALONG THE MEXICO COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N79W...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N98W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN ABOUT 30 HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR CONDITIONS...KDLP. MVFR CONDITIONS...KMDJ...KVOA...KVKY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...IFR IN MCALLEN AND WESLACO. MVFR ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH. IFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREAS... LIFR IN CORPUS CHRISTI. LIFR IN PORT LAVACA...BAY CITY...AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. IFR IN VICTORIA AND PALACIOS. LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES...IFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN NEW IBERIA AND PATTERSON AND GALLIANO...IFR IN LAFAYETTE. RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...HAS BEEN REPORTED IN BOOTHVILLE DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...LIFR IN GULFPORT AND BILOXI. IFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...IFR ALONG THE COAST...WITH LIGHT RAIN IN MOBILE. FLORIDA...IFR AND LIGHT RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM DESTIN WESTWARD. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 30N43W 26N50W AND 25N54W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 25N54W TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N20W 24N50W...TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THEN IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM PUERTO RICO TO JAMAICA...TO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.02 IN BERMUDA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE 32N40W-TO-HISPANIOLA FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 40W WESTWARD. 600 MB TO 800 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 09N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 64W...BECOMES NORTHEASTERLY IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 63W AND 77W. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM JAMAICA TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA. 600 MB TO 800 MB IS ANTICYCLONIC FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 85W...FROM THE COASTAL WATERS TO PARTS OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.03 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING... MVFR...IS IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN THE AREA. EXPECT WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY ONE...AND SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE. THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE TO SOUTHERLY BY THE END OF DAY TWO AS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 40W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA AND ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 08N35W TO 04N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N22W...TO 25N35W AND 20N61W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N40W-TO-HISPANIOLA FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT