000
AXNT20 KNHC 201751
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS LATE THURSDAY AND BRING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE
NW TO N WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE SW GULF OF MEXICO GENERALLY S
OF 20N W OF 95W MATERIALIZING BY 22/1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                    
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
07N15W TO 05N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 05N23W TO 03N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 10W-15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS NOTED ACROSS A
MAJORITY OF THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
NORTH ACROSS THE SE CONUS FOCUSED ON A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 34N81W. WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...GENTLE
TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH S-SE RETURN FLOW ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WATERS THURSDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS LATE THURSDAY INTRODUCING THE SPECIAL FEATURES
NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER A MAJORITY OF
THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.
MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE SE OF A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW HISPANIOLA W-SW TO THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER NEAR 15N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW IS OCCURRING W OF 75W WHILE
MODERATE TRADES CONTINUE E OF 75W. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS RIDE WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
CURRENTLY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION
OF THE ISLAND PROVIDING MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND GENERALLY NE ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE NORTHERN COAST. THIS
PARTICULAR FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE ADJACENT
COASTAL SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND INLAND NORTHERN PORTIONS DUE TO
WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT. AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH
THURSDAY...ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED...BUT WILL
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD IMPROVING SKIES BY FRIDAY.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH ATLC THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N46W SW TO 26N55W THEN
STATIONARY TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT AND
WITHIN 210 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT N OF 30N
FOLLOWS TO THE NW ANALYZED FROM 32N55W W-SW TO 30N67W.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN