000 AXNT20 KNHC 201203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 07N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N19W TO 04N26W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 04N26W 01N31W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD... MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 13N17W TO 06N30W TO 05N51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 29N81W TO 26N90W TO 23N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE- FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/ FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... MVFR CONDITIONS...KBQX. IFR CONDITIONS...KGVX...KXIH...KGLS...KMDJ. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIFR IN MUCH OF THE LOWER VALLEY/DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. IFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI...MVFR ELSEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS. LIFR IN PALACIOS. PATCHES OF IFR/MVFR IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. IFR IN GALVESTON. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/ PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PARTS OF THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. HEAVY RAIN IN GALLIANO. LIGHT RAIN IN FOURCHON AND SLIDELL. FROM MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 24N60W...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 18N80W INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF NICARAGUA...WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N28W 25N50W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.21 IN BERMUDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 44W WESTWARD. 600 MB TO 800 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 65W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.05 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE OBSERVATION AT 19/2300 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CLEAR SKY IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN THE AREA. EXPECT WEST WIND FOR DAY ONE... AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND FLOW...SOMETIMES FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SOMETIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST...FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 44W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 08N33W...BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 08N33W TO 04N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N11W...TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N24W...TO 24N40W AND 22N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N48W-24N60W STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT