000 AXNT20 KNHC 200605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED JAN 20 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA NEAR 09N13W...TO 09N16W AND 06N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N20W TO 02N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 33W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 04S39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 02N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 18W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 13N17W TO 05N30W TO 04N51W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 29N81W TO 26N90W TO 23N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ALABAMA AND GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTHER BRANCH OF A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR IN MCALLEN. MVFR IN BROWNSVILLE. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. FROM LOUISIANA TO MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 25N60W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF CUBA...CURVING TO 18N80W. THE FRONT IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 18N80W INTO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND 13N85W IN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 26N50W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.21 IN BERMUDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 44W WESTWARD. 600 MB TO 800 MB EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 65W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 20/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.05 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE OBSERVATION AT 19/2300 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT BARAHONA AT 20/0000 UTC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AT PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL SPAN THE AREA. EXPECT WEST WIND FOR DAY ONE... AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FOR DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND FLOW...SOMETIMES FROM THE NORTHEAST AND SOMETIMES FROM THE SOUTHEAST...FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 44W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N13W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 09N31W...BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 09N31W TO 05N40W AND 04N45W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N16W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N25W...TO 23N50W TO 20N60W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N49W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT