000 AXNT20 KNHC 192346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 09N12W TO 08N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 01S30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-03N BETWEEN 19W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1036 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY NEAR 37N86W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE HIGH TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SE GULF. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 25N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WSW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH A 100 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE S GULF. UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE S GULF...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND S FLORIDA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO VIRGINIA PRODUCING MOSTLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT 20N74W TO 17N81W TO NE NICARAGUA AT 14N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN...NICARAGUA...HONDURAS... GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. 15-20 KT NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT THE THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE BACK N WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO N OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE FRONT...AND FOR TRADEWIND SHOWERS TO BE S OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N54W TO E CUBA AT 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N50W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N44W TO THE MONA PASSAGE WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N23W WITH FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA