000 AXNT20 KNHC 191125 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N11W TO 03N12W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 01NTO03N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD...MOSTLY FROM 08N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N81W TO 26N90W TO 21N97W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1031 MB SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIFR IN VICTORIA. FALFURRIAS WAS REPORTING LIFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY AROUND 19/0900 UTC. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN GALLIANO AFTER LIFR CONDITIONS NEARLY NON-STOP SINCE 19/0635 UTC. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 26N66W...TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 21N77W TO 20N80W...AND TO THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 30 NM TO 95 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 70W EASTWARD. THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS CLOSER TO THE FRONT NEAR 30N58W...AND FARTHER AWAY NEAR 24N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W...21N70W...JAMAICA...TO THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.30 IN BERMUDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 50W WESTWARD. 600 MB TO 800 MB EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 21N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 47W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB WIND FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 77W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE OBSERVATION AT 19/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AT SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN VENEZUELA ALONG 65W/66W ON DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING DAY ONE AND DAY TWO...ENDING ON DAY TWO IN COLOMBIA ALONG 75W. THE WIND FLOW WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR ALL OF DAY ONE...BECOMING WESTERLY AT THE START OF DAY TWO...AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON DAY ONE ABOUT 700 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE SOUTH...AND THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ON DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP BEING ABOUT 1000 NM TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE/THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY DAY TWO...BRINGING MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA ON DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE TO JAMAICA...AND THEN DISSIPATE AND OPEN INTO AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. DAY ONE WILL START WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...BECOMING NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY. A NEW ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN CUBA FOR DAY TWO. EXPECT EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... TO 10N36W...BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 10N36W TO 05N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO 28N25W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N38W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO 25N53W AND 23N63W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N54W-TO- 21N76W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT