000 AXNT20 KNHC 190526 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 07N13W TO 03N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N18W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...TO 03S30W AND 04S38W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN 10W AND 17W FROM LAND SOUTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N81W TO 26N90W TO 22N97W. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N95W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/ AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN GALLIANO AFTER IFR CONDITIONS DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 27N64W...TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE OF CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 21N77W TO 20N80W...AND TO THE COAST OF EASTERN HONDURAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 64W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W...21N70W...JAMAICA...TO THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.30 IN BERMUDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 50W WESTWARD. 600 MB TO 800 MB EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 16N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. 600 MB TO 800 MB IS FROM THE NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST FROM 80W WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FOR THE OBSERVATION AT 19/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT BARAHONA AT 19/0000 UTC. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA... AND PUNTA CANA...AT SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START IN VENEZUELA ALONG 65W/66W ON DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING DAY ONE AND DAY TWO...ENDING ON DAY TWO IN COLOMBIA ALONG 75W. THE WIND FLOW WILL START FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR ALL OF DAY ONE...BECOMING WESTERLY AT THE START OF DAY TWO...AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN BY THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON DAY ONE ABOUT 700 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...FROM THE SOUTH...AND THEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ON DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP BEING ABOUT 1000 NM TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE/THE BEGINNING OF DAY TWO. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY DAY TWO...BRINGING MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA ON DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ON TOP OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE TO JAMAICA...AND THEN DISSIPATE AND OPEN INTO AN AREA OF COMPARATIVELY BROADER ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. DAY ONE WILL START WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...BECOMING NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY. A NEW ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN EASTERN CUBA FOR DAY TWO. EXPECT EAST-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW FOR DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 50W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO THE CANARY ISLANDS...THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... TO 10N37W...BECOMING A SHEAR AXIS FROM 10N37W TO 05N48W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO...TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N34W...TO 24N56W AND 23N65W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EVERYWHERE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N54W-TO-21N77W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT