000 AXNT20 KNHC 181746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON JAN 18 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W TO 06N17W TO 05N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 05N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 07W-19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION SW TO OVER WEST- CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 23N107W. WHILE MUCH OF THE AIR ALOFT REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE AND GENERALLY DRIER THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS...SURFACE RIDGING INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. REMAINING WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE N-NE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH N-NE WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY E OF 90W INTO TUESDAY. ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE BEFORE REACHING THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA GULF COASTS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER A MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONTINUE SE OF A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO THE NICARAGUA/ HONDURAS BORDER NEAR 15N83W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. TO THE NW OF THE BOUNDARY...THE PRIMARY FRONT ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AND MEANDERS SW TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WHILE MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS N OF THE TWO BOUNDARIES...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EVENING DISSIPATE BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE USUAL FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND GULF OF MEXICO REGIONS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 32N60W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N79W. TO THE SOUTHEAST...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N69W TO 21N77W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN