000
AXNT20 KNHC 181119
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                         

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 23N78W TO 32N64W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 21N76W TO 30N64W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF 29N
WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE TROUGH...WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10-14
FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE THIS MORNING.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER THE
AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...   
                                   
THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO
04N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03S39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS BETWEEN 07W-20W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING E ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN S
OF 25N DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
GENTLE EASTERLIES OVER THE W GULF MAINLY W OF 90W WHILE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS NORTHERLY WINDS E OF 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
FAIR WEATHER. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
REACHING W CUBA FROM 16N85W TO 22N78W. TO THE E...A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N83W TO 21N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HABANA...CUBA. A
SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY
THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED QUICK-
MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
MAINLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-77W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS WITH
CONVECTION.  

...HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND TRANSPORTED BY
THE TRADES. A SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
 
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 22N78W TO 32N64W. TO THE E...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 21N76W TO 30N64W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING THE
WATERS W OF 61W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 35N19W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING E
WITH CONVECTION.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA