000
AXNT20 KNHC 180540
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 18 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                         

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 23N80W TO 32N70W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF
28N WITHIN 270 NM E OF FRONT...WITH SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 10-15
FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT
UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADER HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.
 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...   
                                   
THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO
05N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03S39W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 18W-36W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...   
 
A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING E ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN S
OF 23N DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
GENTLE EASTERLIES OVER THE W GULF MAINLY W OF 90W WHILE FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS NORTHERLY WINDS E OF 90W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH
FAIR WEATHER. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
REACHING W CUBA FROM 16N88W TO 23N80W. TO THE E...A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N86W TO 22N78W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION PREVAILS ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE CAUSED
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HABANA...CUBA. A
SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER THE E ATLANTIC. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY
THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED QUICK-
MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN
AREA OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
MAINLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-77W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS WITH
CONVECTION.  

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN... 
 
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 23N80W TO 32N70W. TO THE E...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 22N78W TO 30N69W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING THE
WATERS W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 37N20W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO CONTINUE MOVING E
WITH CONVECTION.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA