000 AXNT20 KNHC 172319 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT IS FROM 31N75W TO 27N80W. N OF 26N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W N AND E OF BAHAMAS SW WINDS ARE 30 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT W TO NW WINDS W OF FRONT WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN MIXED SWELL...EXCEPT 11 TO 16 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 18/1200 UTC AS THE FRONT MOVES E. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N12W TO 05N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N27W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 05S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 21W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W TO W CUBA AT 23N81W. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS VERY FEW SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF FRONT. 15-25 NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF S OF 28N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH A 100 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE S GULF. UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA AT 23N81W TO BELIZE AT 17N88W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N79W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE E PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...HONDURAS...AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 65W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A GALE IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 24N80W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N60W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N60W TO E CUBA WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT A 1024 MB HIGH TO BE CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N35W WITH FAIR WEATHER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA