000
AXNT20 KNHC 171743
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
A GALE FORCE 998 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
NEAR 30N81W THAT CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY RACE NE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO...YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A
SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHERWISE...A SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY IS
ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE FRONT FROM 27N84W TO
26N90W. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF AND AREAS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS NEAR THE LOW CENTER. WHILE THE GALE WARNING IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WILL LIKELY BE LIFTED BY
EVENING...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY AND WESTERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                              
ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...THE
GULF BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW...OUTSIDE OF THE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS...THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE GRADUALLY BY EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS EAST
OF THE BASIN AS WELL...HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED ACROSS TEXAS AND
EASTERN MEXICO WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ON
MONDAY...MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH N-NE FLOW IS EXPECTED AS
THE HIGH ANCHORS ACROSS THE SE CONUS. BY TUESDAY...LIGHT TO
GENTLE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE NW WATERS AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO
ANALYZED FROM WESTERN CUBA SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
ALOFT DUE TO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER
VENEZUELA. ASIDE FROM FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NW CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PERSIST GENERALLY E OF
80W WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
WATERS AND LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PREVAILS OVER HISPANIOLA
THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              
ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES GALE FORCE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE
IMPACTING THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N34W SW TO 20N70W. WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SPECIAL FEATURES LOW.
THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND WARM FRONT EXTEND FROM
31N53W TO 27N70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FARTHER EAST...THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC AS WELL ANCHORED BY A 1028
MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N26W.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN