000 AXNT20 KNHC 171126 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN JAN 17 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...A 997 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 19N96W WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NE FROM THE LOW TO 30N83W. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM 28N84W TO 22N89W. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 40 TO 50 KT W OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 420 NM SW QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WITH SEAS UP TO 17 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 22N- 30N W OF THE SQUALL LINE TO 93W...WINDS RANGE BETWEEN 30-40 KT AND SEAS UP TO 15 FT. EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE E ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE W ATLANTIC. WITH THIS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO RELATED TO THE 997 MB SURFACE LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE E...ENTERING THE W ATLANTIC THIS MORNING AND GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N AND W OF 77W...AND FROM 26N-27N W OF 78W. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 8-12 FT ACROSS THESE AREAS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W TO 06N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03S40W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A 997 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 19N96W WHILE A WARM FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NE FROM THE LOW TO 30N83W. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM 28N84W TO 22N89W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PREVAIL ACROSS THE E GULF MAINLY E OF 84W AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY E ENHANCING CONVECTION AND WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN FROM THE E ATLANTIC. SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES GENERATING QUICK-MOVING SHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS N OF COLOMBIA MAINLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-77W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH THIS...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE W PORTION OF THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW ATLANTIC BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ALONG THE EASTERN US COASTLINE MOVES E WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N85W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N69W TO 32N54W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N31W. OVER THE FAR E ATLANTIC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N32W TO 32N20W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED TO THE E OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY N OF 15N BETWEEN 22W-33W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA