000 AXNT20 KNHC 170014 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO STORM WARNING...AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1000 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N95W. WINDS 40 TO 50 KT ARE WITHIN 75 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. ELSEWHERE WINDS 30 TO 40 KT ARE WITHIN 90 NM W SEMICIRCLE WITH SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 17/1800 UTC. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC...OR THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24...FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLC GALE WARNING...COLD FRONT IS FROM 31N66W TO 24N77W TO 23N80W. N OF 30N E OF FRONT TO 59W SW WINDS ARE 25 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS 10 TO 12 FT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL 17/0600 UTC. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLC GALE WARNING...A COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO MOVING E. ON 17/1500 UTC OVER THE W ATLANTIC...A 998 MB LOW IS FORECAST TO BE AT 30N80.5W. FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W S TO SW WINDS 30 TO 40 KT ARE FORECAST WITH SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO 05N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 04S39W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A STORM WARNING IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. SEE ABOVE. A 1000 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N95W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 28N90W AND A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N85W. A SQUALL LINE IS E OF THE NW GULF COLD FRONT FROM 28N94W TO 23N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE MOVING E. 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE E OF OF THE SQUALL LINE IN THE WARM SECTOR. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N AND E OF 84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 94W. WSW FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH A 130 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF. UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE S TEXAS COAST. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO BE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 32N75W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO SOUTH FLORIDA. 15-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY OVER CUBA. THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 20N HAS 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 10-25 KT TRADEWIND FLOW WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ...HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A GALE IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER GALE IS FORECAST OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA ON 17/1500 UTC. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 24N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 31N24W TO 26N31W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITHIN 18 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT ALL THREE COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA