000 AXNT20 KNHC 161741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION NEAR 32N69W EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THEN ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE S-SW WINDS ARE OCCURRING GENERALLY N OF 28N E OF THE FRONT TO 65W. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...HOWEVER REMAIN IN THE STRONG TO NEAR GALE STRENGTH CATEGORY THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A COMPLEX AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOCUSED ON A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED WEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 27N98W. AS THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND GENERATE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE S-SW WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...AND NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER AND WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY RACE EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING THE SAME CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS GENERALLY N OF 27N. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 06N13W TO 02N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N17W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 18W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... CURRENTLY...ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRECEDE THE STRONG TO GALE FORCE S-SW WINDS ANTICIPATED CLOSER TO THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF WITH N-NW SURFACE WINDS PREVAILING W OF THE FRONT. THESE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20 KT OR GREATER THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT THEN WEAKENS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF WATERS. THEREAFTER...MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH N-NE FLOW IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE...ANCHORED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...EXTENDS AN AXIS FROM MISSISSIPPI S-SW TO SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NW VENEZUELA. TWO AREA OF NOTE ARE A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REGION AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN WATERS...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION TO A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 20N78W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST E OF 80W THROUGH MONDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT PREVAILS OVER HISPANIOLA THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... ASIDE FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE IMPACTING THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...HOWEVER A PAIR OF WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARIES EXTEND INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE EASTERN MOST COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DISSIPATING FROM 32N32W SW TO 26N44W. ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF 25N45W THAT CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 34N40W TO 32N48W. IT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND QUICKLY MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION IS IMPACTED BY A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N24W TO 29N27W. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ACROSS AN AREA FROM 19N-27N BETWEEN 25W-41W AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF 23N39W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN