000 AXNT20 KNHC 160536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 993 MB SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER SE NORTH CAROLINA NEAR 35N79W. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO. TO THE E OF THE FRONT...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA N OF 30N BETWEEN 73W-76W. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24...AND THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO 29N94W TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND IT FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 92W-95W BY EARLY SUNDAY. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N10W TO 00N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N32W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01S47W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN...EXTENDING FROM 29N96W TO 29N94W TO 30N93W. TO THE SE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM 22N90W TO 25N84W TO 28N83W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS RELATED TO ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES AT THIS TIME AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF. AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF IS A SQUALL LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY S OF 24N AND E OF 86W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE W FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF TO CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS SE THE BASIN ATTACHED TO A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF WITH CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E GULF WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W THEN INTO THE W ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTION THE FAR W CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF W CUBA MAINLY N OF 21N AND W OF 80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SHALLOW MOISTURE TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES IS GENERATING ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE BASIN. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 70W-78W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES. ...HISPANIOLA... LOW TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW PREVAIL OVER THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT OVER THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE W ATLANTIC FROM 24N80W TO 26N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS AND THE WATERS W OF 70W. TO THE E...A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 31N59W.S OF THIS FEATURE...A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLANTIC. A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 27N70W TO 24N60W...THEN A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 25N42W TO 32N32W. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE E PORTION OF THE BASIN E OF 25W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA