000 AXNT20 KNHC 160006 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 43.0N 27.8W AT 15/2100 UTC OR 252 NM N OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES...MOVING N AT 35 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 43N-51N BETWEEN 18W-37W. SEE THE LAST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING N FLORIDA MOVING E. A SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE N BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MOVING E. A GALE IS OVER THE ATLANTIC N OF 30N BETWEEN 73W-76W WITH SEAS TO 12 FT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 ...AND THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 FOR MORE DETAILS. A COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A GALE IS FORECAST OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO IN 30 HOURS ON 17/0000 UTC WITHIN 180 NM SW QUADRANT OF A 1004 MB LOW AT 28N93W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N09W TO 01N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 00N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W TO JUST W OF TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W TO 25N85W TO N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N90W. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS AT 27N79W TO S FLORIDA AT 25N80W TO W CUBA AT 23N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE SQUALL LINE S OF 25N. ELSEWHERE...10-15 KT W TO NW WINDS ARE W OF FRONT WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH A 130 KT JETSTREAM OVER THE N GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FLORIDA FRONT TO BE OVER THE ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A 1004 MB LOW TO BE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N95W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS W OF FRONT. EXPECT A GALE IN 30 HOURS OVER THE NW GULF. SEE ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SQUALL LINE IS PRESENTLY OVER W CUBA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 21N-22N. THE NW CARIBBEAN S OF 21N HAS 15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS 15-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW WITH SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 70W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE SEA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADEWIND FLOW ARE OVER THE ISLAND. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A GALE IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N57W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N35W TO 25N50W TO 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITHIN 12 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOR THE TWO COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA