000 AXNT20 KNHC 151800 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 39.3N 27.0W AT 15/1500 UTC OR 30 NM N OF TERCEIRA IN THE AZORES...MOVING N AT 24 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 37N TO 49N BETWEEN 20W AND 34W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1000 MB LOW IS OVER THE FL PANHANDLE N OF PANAMA CITY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO 27N87W TO 24N90W. OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 27N TO 28.5N E OF 85W FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...AFTER 1800 UTC WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 76W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24...AND THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N10W TO 03N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N30W TO 02N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SE US SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THAT IS RAPIDLY MOVING E TO NE TOWARD S GA. AS OF 1500 UTC A SQUALL LINE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL FL TO NEAR FORT MYERS TO 26N83W TO 25N84W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO 28N85W TO 24N89W TO 22N94W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE E OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF THROUGH 1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SW WINDS TO 30 KT ARE OVER THE SE GULF E OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH SW TO W WINDS COVER THE GULF W OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE EASTERN GULF AND MOVE OVER THE W ATLC TONIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO THE S. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS NEXT LOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS DISSIPATED LEAVING THE BASIN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH MAINLY DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AS WELL AS SUBSIDENCE. A COLD FRONT TRAILS TO THE SE GULF TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SE US. CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 19N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AS THE TAIL END OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT NEARS THE AREA. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WINDWARD LOCATIONS OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE GULF AND SOUTHERN US SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW N ATLC FROM 24N TOP 31N W OF 75W TO THE FL PENINSULA. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THIS AREA BEGINNING AT 1800 UTC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 31N65W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION TO THE EAST OF THIS HIGH NEAR 31N43W TO 26N52W TO 24N59W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS OVER THE AZORES. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE W OF 75W TO THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING...SPREADING E TO NEAR 70W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHILE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ANOTHER LOW CROSSING THE GULF WILL BRING CONVECTION TO THE SW N ATLC ALONG AND N OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO