000 AXNT20 KNHC 151157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX AT 15/1200 UTC IS NEAR 38.0N 26.9W...OR ABOUT 43 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TERCEIRA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES...AND ABOUT 92 NM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES. ALEX IS MOVING NORTHWARD...005 DEGREES...20 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 80 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ALEX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ON ALEX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 300 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N89W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1004 MB LOW CENTER TO TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 28.5N96W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 29.5N88W...TO FLORIDA NEAR 28.5N82.5W. GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET ARE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN 39 HOURS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITHIN 210 NM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 28N95W. SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET ARE FORECAST IN 12 HOURS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N NORTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA/ ATLANTIC OCEAN OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...IRVING...FOR HURRICANE ALEX. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDICATES...THE THREAT OF NORTHEAST NEAR GALE IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...AGADIR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 04N13W AND 03N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N20W TO 03N28W AND 02N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 06N11W 04N19W 03N27W 03N34W 02N39W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N89W TO 24N90W TO 22N86W. ALL THE MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE 30N89W 22N86W IS RELATED TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND THE WARM FRONT...AND THE FORECASTS FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS IN TWO DIFFERENT AREAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE EAST OF 30N88W 24N90W 22N86W...INCLUDING ACROSS FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR CONDITIONS...KGLS. MVFR CONDITIONS...KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...AND KVQT. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...LIFR IN BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...AND MCALLEN. MVFR IN WESLACO. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEP SOUTH. LIFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE AND AT ROBSTOWN IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS. IFR IN ROCKPORT. LIFR IN PALACIOS AND BAY CITY...IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...IN GALVESTON AND BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. IFR IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO CONROE. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. LIFR IN LAFAYETTE. IFR IN PATTERSON. MVFR IN GALLIANO AND PORT FOURCHON. LIFR IN BOOTHVILLE. LIFR AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...EXCEPT FOR VFR AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION JOINT RESERVE BASE IN NEW ORLEANS. MISSISSIPPI...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ALABAMA...LIFR AT THE MOBILE DOWNTOWN AIRPORT. FLORIDA...IFR WITH RAIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PANAMA CITY WESTWARD. MVFR IN MARIANNA. MVFR WITH RAIN IN APALACHICOLA. RAIN AND THUNDER AND MVFR IN TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY AND BROOKSVILLE. MVFR AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AND/OR HAS BEEN REPORTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY IN THE TAMPA/ST.PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. RAIN IS OFF AND ON IN SARASOTA. HEAVY RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN PUNTA GORDA. IT IS RAINING IN THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. VFR/NO CEILINGS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL VENEZUELA-BEYOND 32N51W RIDGE. THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 24N60W TO 23N70W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 23N70W AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA..INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM CUBA WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 20N87W 22N70W 24N50W 32N33W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.01 IN BERMUDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... INCLUDING ACROSS NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.02 IN CURACAO. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT BARAHONA. SANTO DOMINGO IS REPORTING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM VENEZUELA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START OUT ABOUT 140 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THAT SAME ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...AND THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND IT WILL BLEND INTO AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE ALONG 18N AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL STAY ALONG 18N FOR MOST OF DAY TWO...UNTIL THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL TAKE ON A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N72W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N14W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS... TO 22N22W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT