000 AXNT20 KNHC 150605 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX AT 15/0300 UTC IS NEAR 34.7N 27.6W...OR ABOUT 240 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES. ALEX IS MOVING NORTHWARD...010 DEGREES... 19 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 70 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 85 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ALEX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ON ALEX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 25N BETWEEN 17W AND 27W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N95W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1008 MB LOW CENTER TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N92W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 29N90W... TO 28N86W AND 27N83W. SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM 27N TO 29.5N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO NORTH CAROLINA... AND TO SPREAD GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN ABOUT 18 HOURS...TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 77W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA/ ATLANTIC OCEAN OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...IRVING... FOR HURRICANE ALEX. GALE-FORCE WINDS ALSO ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...METEOR. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDICATES...PERSISTENCE OF SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE...IN THE NORTHWEST PART OF MADEIRA AT FIRST. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 06N10W TO 05N17W AND 03N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 03N20W TO 01N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W...TO 01S40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 12W AND 18W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 23W AND 27W... AND SOUTH OF 04N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 30N93W TO 26N93W TO 25N87W TO 25N81W. ALL THE MOISTURE THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE 30N93W 25N81W IS RELATED TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT ARE IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND THE WARM FRONT...AND THE GALE-FORCE WIND FORECAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE WARM FRONT...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 85W AND 93W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 87W...INCLUDING ACROSS FLORIDA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LIFR CONDITIONS...KGLS AND KSPR. IFR CONDITIONS...KGRY...KVKY...AND KMIS. MVFR CONDITIONS...KXIH...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...AND KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR VISIBILITY AT PORT ISABEL. MCALLEN WAS REPORTING AN IFR VISIBILITY DURING THE LAST HOUR. LIFR FROM THE VICTORIA-PORT LAVACA-PALACIOS LINE TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA... INCLUDING IN GALVESTON. MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. IFR FROM THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO HUNTSVILLE. LOUISIANA...LIFR IN THE LAKE CHARLES METROPOLITAN AREA. RAINSHOWERS...SOME HEAVY AT TIMES...IN GALLIANO. LIFR TO IFR IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS. RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AROUND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. RAIN AND LIFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...RAIN AND LIFR-TO-IFR CONDITIONS. ALABAMA...HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOBILE METROPOLITAN AREA. FLORIDA...LIGHT RAIN IN BROOKSVILLE AND PARTS OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR AT MARATHON KEY. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A NORTH CENTRAL COASTAL VENEZUELA-BEYOND 32N51W RIDGE. THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N60W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FRONT AT 26N60W AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA..INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM CUBA WESTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 18N87W 22N70W 25N50W 32N38W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.01 IN BERMUDA. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 13N NORTHWARD TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... INCLUDING ACROSS NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 15/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.02 IN CURACAO. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 15/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT BARAHONA AT 15/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO IS REPORTING SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE AT SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AT PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM VENEZUELA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EXPECT WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START OUT ABOUT 140 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE. THAT SAME ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL END UP ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AT THE END OF DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE...AND THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-SOUTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START ABOUT 120 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND IT WILL BLEND INTO AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE ALONG 18N AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL STAY ALONG 18N FOR MOST OF DAY TWO...UNTIL THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL TAKE ON A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N74W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT