000 AXNT20 KNHC 141811 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU JAN 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 31.5N 28.4W AT 14/1500 UTC OR 425 NM S OF THE AZORES MOVING NNE AT 17 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE N OF 31N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE S OF 31N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AS OF 1500 UTC A PAIR OF 1013 MB LOWS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NEAR 27N95W AND 23N95W. THE NORTHERNMOST LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE ENE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TONIGHT...REACHING N FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS N OF 27N E OF 85W STARTING AT 1200 UTC FRIDAY. SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS PORTION OF THE GULF. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N21W TO 01N35W TO 02N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED S OF THE EQUATOR. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL US SUPPORTS A PAIR OF 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERS THAT AS OF 1500 UTC WERE LOCATED OVER THE W GULF NEAR 27N95W AND 23N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LOW TO THE SOUTHERN LOW TO 19N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN LOW TO 25N93W TO 23N87W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SURFACE FEATURES ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM DYNAMICS SUPPORTS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SE GULF FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 81W AND 90W...INCLUDING FL KEYS...AND THE NW GULF N OF 27N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE ATLC COAST OF GEORGIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF CURRENTLY SUPPORTS MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS EAST OF THE LOWS OVER THE GULF BASIN. LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS ARE WEST OF THE LOWS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE NORTHERNMOST LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES ENE ACROSS THE GULF. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INTENSIFYING LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE EAST WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NE GULF FRIDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW AS THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 22N79W TO 20N83W TO 16N88W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. MAINLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT A SMALL AREA OF FRESH WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 71W AND 78W ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CARIBBEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW ARE OVER HISPANIOLA TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N52W TO 27N57W TO 25N63W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 24N70W TO 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N. A DISSIPATING 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 24N58W. NEWLY UPGRADED HURRICANE ALEX IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SOUTH OF ALEX EXTENDING FROM 27N31W TO 18N37W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH FROM 17N TO 27N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL INCREASE W OF 75W E OF FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO