000 AXNT20 KNHC 141155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX IS NEAR 30.1N 29.3W AT 14/0900 UTC...OR ABOUT 490 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ALEX IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...020 DEGREES...16 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 60 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 75 KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ALEX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ ADVISORIES ON ALEX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 140 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 19W AND 21W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N95W. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N89W. ONE PART OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N96W. ANOTHER PART OF THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOWS THAT A WARM FRONT WILL BE ALONG 30N BETWEEN 83W AND 87W. SOUTHEAST-TO-SOUTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 12 FEET WILL BE FROM THE WARM FRONT TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. THE 36-HOUR FORECAST IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOWS THAT GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 10 FEET TO 12 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 78W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE CALLED...IRVING AND METEOR...FOR GALE-FORCE TO STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDICATES... SOUTHEAST NEAR GALE TO SEVERE GALE OVER WEST OF MADEIRA...THREAT OF NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR GALE OVER AGADIR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 04N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N16W TO 01N18W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 04S32W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 05S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE AREA. PLEASE READ THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND WARM FRONT...AND GALE-FORCE WIND FORECAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE WARM FRONT... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 87W AND THE COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...ESPECIALLY FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 86W EASTWARD. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... IFR CONDITIONS...KXIH AND KEHC. MVFR CONDITIONS...KGVX...KHQI...AND KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR AT HARLINGEN...AND AT SOME SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA HAS BEEN REPORTING LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA-TO-26N61W-TO-32N57W RIDGE. THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 25N65W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FRONT AT 25N65W AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA..INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO BELIZE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 18N87W 21N77W 23N64W 28N50W 32N37W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEAST-TO-EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS FROM COSTA RICA TO 20N FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD...EVEN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 14/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO DOMINGO IS REPORTING FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA ARE REPORTING FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL VARY A BIT DURING DAY TWO...BUT GIVE THE SAME SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM A GUADELOUPE PASSAGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO NICARAGUA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. THE EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL REMAIN FOR DAY TWO...SENDING MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM 90 NM TO 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD A BIT...AND IT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM 18N60W AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE TO A POSITION THAT IS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER HISPANIOLA ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH DAY TWO...AND IT WILL END UP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W...TO JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...TO 31N69W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 31N69W TO 33N74W AND 32N77W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 14/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.48 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N58W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N15W... ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N21W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 14N35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT