000 AXNT20 KNHC 140549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU JAN 14 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX IS NEAR 28.7N 30.0W AT 14/0300 UTC...OR ABOUT 575 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. ALEX IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...035 DEGREES...15 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 26W-32W. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON ALEX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON ALEX ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 250 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 400 NM TO 900 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...IN ABOUT 18 HOURS...AND MOVE RAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST IN ABOUT 30 HOURS TO PRODUCE NEAR GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 10 FEET...FROM 28N TO 29.5N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. GALE-FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN ABOUT 42 HOURS...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 11 FEET...FROM 29N NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF 78W. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE CALLED...METEOR AND IRVING...FOR GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDICATES...CYCLONIC GALE OR SEVERE GALE...WITH SEVERE OR VIOLENT GUSTS...IN IRVING. A THREAT OF A SOUTHEAST NEAR GALE OR GALE IN THE WESTERN PART OF MADEIRA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 07N20W AND 06N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N22W TO 03N30W 01N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W...TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MOSTLY FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 24W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE AREA. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N96W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 21N92W...AND ANOTHER PART OF THE TROUGH EXTENDS TO 25N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 89W AND 96W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...AREAS OF RAIN AND VFR IN THE DEEP SOUTH. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE IN THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...TYNDALL AIR FORCE BASE IN PANAMA CITY MVFR VISIBILITY. THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA HAS BEEN REPORTING LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA-TO-26N61W-TO-32N57W RIDGE. THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 25N67W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FRONT AT 25N67W AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA..INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO BELIZE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 18N87W 21N77W 30N40W 32N38W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEAST-TO-EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IS FROM COSTA RICA TO 20N FROM JAMAICA WESTWARD...EVEN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 14/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 14/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE COVERING THE SKIES IN BARAHONA AT 14/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO IS REPORTING FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND ANOTHER LAYER OF A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA ARE REPORTING FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 180 NM TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL VARY A BIT DURING DAY TWO...BUT GIVE THE SAME SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM A GUADELOUPE PASSAGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO NICARAGUA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. THE EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE WILL REMAIN FOR DAY TWO...SENDING MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM 90 NM TO 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL START WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD A BIT...AND IT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY ONE. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE FROM 18N60W AT THE BEGINNING OF DAY ONE TO A POSITION THAT IS OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF DAY ONE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER HISPANIOLA ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH DAY TWO...AND IT WILL END UP ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF DAY TWO. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 32N72W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 32N72W TO 33N79W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 14/0000 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.48 IN BERMUDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N53W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N62W...TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W... ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 22N22W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 12N33W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT