000 AXNT20 KNHC 140158 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMENDED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED JAN 13 2016 AMENDED TO ADD ANOTHER SPECIAL FEATURE TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 27.1N 30.8W AT 13/2100 UTC OR 785 NM SSW OF THE AZORES MOVING NE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 26W-32W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY AND MOVE SWIFTLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS BY 15/0600 UTC GENERALLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 85W- 87.5W. WINDS ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY LATE FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES NE INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 07N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N23W TO 04N35W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY SATURATED AND CLOUD-LADEN SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO...THE GULF...AND OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. WHILE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 30N FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W. GENERALLY GENTLE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM 19N92W TO 24N97W IS INDUCING N-NW WINDS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AS RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE EXISTING RIDGE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND TEXAS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGHING AMPLIFIES AND CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE NW GULF. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA AND NEARLY ZONAL MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. A NARROW STRIP OF REMNANT MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED ALONG 30N-33N BETWEEN 57W-82W SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA W-SW TO 20N87W THEN SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND GENERALLY N OF 19N BETWEEN 80W- 90W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER WHILE WEAKENING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANY REMNANT ENERGY EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PROVIDING FAIR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ON MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12N61W TO 16N82W. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A FEW LOW-TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST- NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W EXTENDING SW TO 25N73W THEN STATIONARY TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 300 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE SE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N62W THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST... SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE BASIN WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY... ANALYZED CURRENTLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH...REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM FROM 12N40W TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN