000 AXNT20 KNHC 131200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED JAN 13 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 989 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25.5N34W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N37W AND 32N30W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N30W TO 30N28W 20N30W 14N40W 13N50W AND 14N66W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 12 FEET TO 19 FEET OVER FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 240 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N34W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 08N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 23W AND 45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE... WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/ GRANDLARGE/METAREA2...FOR THE AREAS THAT ARE CALLED...IRVING... METEOR...AND FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA THAT IS CALLED...CAPE VERDE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS INDICATES...THE PERSISTENCE OF CYCLONIC GALE OR NEAR GALE...WITH THE THREAT OF A SEVERE GALE IN METEOR AND IRVING...WITH THE THREAT OF A STORM IN ACORES AND ALTAIR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREA OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA...TO 06N14W AND TO 05N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N28W TO 04N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 20W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N80W 24N90W 18N101W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 27N92W TO 23N94W...TO 19N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 29N84W 24N98W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... VFR CONDITIONS/NO CEILINGS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS...MVFR VISIBILITIES IN VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...IFR VISIBILITY IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR. LOUISIANA...IFR VISIBILITIES IN GALLIANO AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS. MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AND FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE...THAT EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA TO 24N61W BEYOND 32N56W. THIS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ON TOP OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N60W 26N69W...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTHWEST OF 18N88W 21N80W. ...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. 600 MB TO 800 MB NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND 74W...AND FROM 77W WESTWARD...EVEN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD THAT ENDED AT 13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01KNHC...IS 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PART OF A LARGE-SCALE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AT 13/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WERE COVERING THE SKIES IN BARAHONA AT 13/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO IS REPORTING FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA ARE REPORTING FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE RIDGE REMAINS FROM NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA TOWARD HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL RANGE FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST DURING DAY ONE...AND FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE FROM 90 NM TO 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE THERE FOR DAY TWO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT