000 AXNT20 KNHC 122348 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 990 MB STORM FORCE SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 25N36W THAT HAS UNDERGONE AN OCCLUSION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WHILE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. AT THIS POINT EXAMINING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED ITS SOUTHERN-MOST EXTENT AND WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE OCCLUSION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...THE REMAINING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SE OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 22N30W TO 15N40W TO 13N54W TO 14N60W AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW DISSIPATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DEEP LAYERED LOW IS NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N35W WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUING TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 19N- 32N BETWEEN 23W-36W. WHILE THE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF THE LOW...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 04N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N18W TO 03N30W TO 07N37W TO 03N50W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED AT THIS TIME. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MOSTLY SATURATED AND CLOUD-LADEN SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING AS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO ADVECT EAST PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE GULF... AND OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. WHILE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MOST OF THE BASIN...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 30N FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO TEXAS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER NEAR 28N100W. GENERALLY GENTLE TO FRESH NORTH- NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM 20N94W TO 26N96W IS INDUCING SLIGHTLY STRONGER N-NE WINDS S OF 26N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AS RIDGING BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE EXISTING RIDGE ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND TEXAS IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGHING AMPLIFIES AND CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ACROSS THE NW GULF LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TROUGHING AND REMAINING MID-LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA SW TO 20N87W THEN SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND GENERALLY N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-90W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT PROVIDING FAIR SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT ON MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N61W TO 17N74W TO 14N83W. ...HISPANIOLA... MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ISLAND. NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD OVER THE NE CONUS. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 240 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...WEAK RIDGING PREVAILS TO THE SE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N56W THAT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FARTHER EAST...THE SPECIAL FEATURES STORM FORCE LOW INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS MARTINIQUE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING E-NE AND REMAIN A RELATIVELY STRONG DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN